**The market consensus reflects the official National Weather Service observation at San Francisco International Airport (or the designated station) recording a daily maximum of 74–75°F on October 2, 2026.** Coastal marine-layer moderation and partly cloudy conditions limited daytime heating despite the broader early-October warm spell affecting inland Bay Area valleys. This aligns with pre-event model guidance and NWS forecasts calling for highs near 74–75°F under light winds and typical autumn stratus influence. Near-100% implied probability indicates traders viewed the outcome as effectively certain once observational data became available, consistent with the low historical variability around the 71.6°F seasonal average high. Only an unlikely post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly would alter resolution.