**Multiple large earthquakes in the August 10–16, 2026 window have driven the market's near-certain positioning on more than 13 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater.** USGS monitoring recorded a M7.4 strike-slip event at ~110 km depth in western Colombia on August 10, followed by a M7.7 event offshore Indonesia on August 14 and additional M6.9 and M5.5+ shocks in the same region over the subsequent days, plus scattered events such as a M5.6 in Alaska. These occurrences exceed the typical global background rate of roughly 8–10 M5.5+ earthquakes per week derived from historical USGS catalogs. The market-implied odds reflect real-time trader aggregation of official catalogs and aftershock potential in tectonically active zones like the South American subduction margin and the Sunda arc. With the resolution window nearly closed, final counts depend on any remaining confirmed events through August 16 and post-processing adjustments to preliminary locations or magnitudes. Realistic challenges to the >13 outcome would require widespread reclassification of marginal events below threshold or an unusually quiet final period, though current data make such revisions unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
>13 99.4%
≤6 <1%
13 <1%
12 <1%
$40,307 Wol.
$40,307 Wol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
<1%
10
<1%
11
<1%
12
<1%
13
1%
>13
99%
>13 99.4%
≤6 <1%
13 <1%
12 <1%
$40,307 Wol.
$40,307 Wol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$8,146 Wol.
1%
7
$1,403 Wol.
<1%
8
$1,087 Wol.
<1%
9
$1,684 Wol.
<1%
10
$1,346 Wol.
<1%
11
$2,588 Wol.
<1%
12
$3,836 Wol.
<1%
13
$3,763 Wol.
1%
>13
$16,453 Wol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Multiple large earthquakes in the August 10–16, 2026 window have driven the market's near-certain positioning on more than 13 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater.**
USGS monitoring recorded a M7.4 strike-slip event at ~110 km depth in western Colombia on August 10, followed by a M7.7 event offshore Indonesia on August 14 and additional M6.9 and M5.5+ shocks in the same region over the subsequent days, plus scattered events such as a M5.6 in Alaska. These occurrences exceed the typical global background rate of roughly 8–10 M5.5+ earthquakes per week derived from historical USGS catalogs.
The market-implied odds reflect real-time trader aggregation of official catalogs and aftershock potential in tectonically active zones like the South American subduction margin and the Sunda arc. With the resolution window nearly closed, final counts depend on any remaining confirmed events through August 16 and post-processing adjustments to preliminary locations or magnitudes.
Realistic challenges to the >13 outcome would require widespread reclassification of marginal events below threshold or an unusually quiet final period, though current data make such revisions unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Wolumen
$40,307Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Multiple large earthquakes in the August 10–16, 2026 window have driven the market's near-certain positioning on more than 13 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater.**
USGS monitoring recorded a M7.4 strike-slip event at ~110 km depth in western Colombia on August 10, followed by a M7.7 event offshore Indonesia on August 14 and additional M6.9 and M5.5+ shocks in the same region over the subsequent days, plus scattered events such as a M5.6 in Alaska. These occurrences exceed the typical global background rate of roughly 8–10 M5.5+ earthquakes per week derived from historical USGS catalogs.
The market-implied odds reflect real-time trader aggregation of official catalogs and aftershock potential in tectonically active zones like the South American subduction margin and the Sunda arc. With the resolution window nearly closed, final counts depend on any remaining confirmed events through August 16 and post-processing adjustments to preliminary locations or magnitudes.
Realistic challenges to the >13 outcome would require widespread reclassification of marginal events below threshold or an unusually quiet final period, though current data make such revisions unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$40,307Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Multiple large earthquakes in the August 10–16, 2026 window have driven the market's near-certain positioning on more than 13 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater.** USGS monitoring recorded a M7.4 strike-slip event at ~110 km depth in western Colombia on August 10, followed by a M7.7 event offshore Indonesia on August 14 and additional M6.9 and M5.5+ shocks in the same region over the subsequent days, plus scattered events such as a M5.6 in Alaska. These occurrences exceed the typical global background rate of roughly 8–10 M5.5+ earthquakes per week derived from historical USGS catalogs. The market-implied odds reflect real-time trader aggregation of official catalogs and aftershock potential in tectonically active zones like the South American subduction margin and the Sunda arc. With the resolution window nearly closed, final counts depend on any remaining confirmed events through August 16 and post-processing adjustments to preliminary locations or magnitudes. Realistic challenges to the >13 outcome would require widespread reclassification of marginal events below threshold or an unusually quiet final period, though current data make such revisions unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
21%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
86%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
42%
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