The dominant market consensus at 94% for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during August 10–16, 2026, is driven by official USGS detections of a 7.4 event in western Colombia on August 10 and two events in Indonesia on August 15—a 7.7 mainshock plus a 6.8 aftershock or related quake—pushing the weekly total to the threshold without additional confirmations exceeding it. Global seismicity rates align with historical averages for M6.5+ events (roughly 1–2 per week worldwide), and no major model revisions or swarm activity in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire have altered the count. Late detections, magnitude re-evaluations by monitoring agencies, or an unexpected late-August 16 event near resolution could shift the outcome toward four or higher.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
3 90.1%
4 2.0%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Wol.
$35,174 Wol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
91%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
3 90.1%
4 2.0%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Wol.
$35,174 Wol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$11,993 Wol.
<1%
1
$6,814 Wol.
<1%
2
$6,885 Wol.
<1%
3
$4,627 Wol.
91%
4
$1,105 Wol.
2%
5
$1,025 Wol.
1%
>5
$2,726 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The dominant market consensus at 94% for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during August 10–16, 2026, is driven by official USGS detections of a 7.4 event in western Colombia on August 10 and two events in Indonesia on August 15—a 7.7 mainshock plus a 6.8 aftershock or related quake—pushing the weekly total to the threshold without additional confirmations exceeding it. Global seismicity rates align with historical averages for M6.5+ events (roughly 1–2 per week worldwide), and no major model revisions or swarm activity in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire have altered the count. Late detections, magnitude re-evaluations by monitoring agencies, or an unexpected late-August 16 event near resolution could shift the outcome toward four or higher.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Wolumen
$35,174Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The dominant market consensus at 94% for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during August 10–16, 2026, is driven by official USGS detections of a 7.4 event in western Colombia on August 10 and two events in Indonesia on August 15—a 7.7 mainshock plus a 6.8 aftershock or related quake—pushing the weekly total to the threshold without additional confirmations exceeding it. Global seismicity rates align with historical averages for M6.5+ events (roughly 1–2 per week worldwide), and no major model revisions or swarm activity in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire have altered the count. Late detections, magnitude re-evaluations by monitoring agencies, or an unexpected late-August 16 event near resolution could shift the outcome toward four or higher.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$35,174Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant market consensus at 94% for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during August 10–16, 2026, is driven by official USGS detections of a 7.4 event in western Colombia on August 10 and two events in Indonesia on August 15—a 7.7 mainshock plus a 6.8 aftershock or related quake—pushing the weekly total to the threshold without additional confirmations exceeding it. Global seismicity rates align with historical averages for M6.5+ events (roughly 1–2 per week worldwide), and no major model revisions or swarm activity in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire have altered the count. Late detections, magnitude re-evaluations by monitoring agencies, or an unexpected late-August 16 event near resolution could shift the outcome toward four or higher.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
46%
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
100%
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
21%
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