Recent polls show a razor-thin contest on resuming EU accession negotiations, with Maskína and Gallup placing yes and no support within 2-3 points of each other days before the 29 August vote and roughly 8% still undecided. Iceland’s parliamentary elections routinely exceed 80% turnout, yet past referendums have ranged from the low 50s to mid-70s, leaving traders to weigh habitual civic engagement against the possibility that a non-binding “negotiations only” question generates less urgency. Tight polling and active campaigning on fisheries, currency stability, and Arctic security have increased mobilization on both sides, supporting the market’s clustering around 45-75% brackets while capping extreme outcomes. Late deciders and weather on voting day remain the clearest variables that could shift realized participation.