**Iran's Supreme Leader succession process, triggered by Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 strikes, installed Mojtaba Khamenei via the Assembly of Experts in early March.** Traders assign low near-term probabilities to further change, with August and September 2026 outcomes under 10% and December 2026 around 17%, reflecting the regime's rapid activation of constitutional mechanisms, including a temporary leadership council. Longer-dated options such as June 2027 lead at roughly 26-27% amid persistent uncertainty over Mojtaba's public absence, reported injuries, and questions about his effective authority. Key variables include the timing of any verified health developments, IRGC influence on clerical decisions, regional conflict escalation, and whether internal power struggles or external pressure produce additional transitions before mid-2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$23,639,280 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 22
<1%
August 31
1%
September 30
5%
October 31
9%
November 30
11%
31 grudnia
17%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,639,280 Wol.
August 22
$60,148 Wol.
<1%
August 31
$1,195,174 Wol.
1%
September 30
$466,178 Wol.
5%
October 31
$19,387 Wol.
9%
November 30
$14,708 Wol.
11%
31 grudnia
$4,034,269 Wol.
17%
June 30, 2027
$241,225 Wol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader succession process, triggered by Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 strikes, installed Mojtaba Khamenei via the Assembly of Experts in early March.** Traders assign low near-term probabilities to further change, with August and September 2026 outcomes under 10% and December 2026 around 17%, reflecting the regime's rapid activation of constitutional mechanisms, including a temporary leadership council. Longer-dated options such as June 2027 lead at roughly 26-27% amid persistent uncertainty over Mojtaba's public absence, reported injuries, and questions about his effective authority. Key variables include the timing of any verified health developments, IRGC influence on clerical decisions, regional conflict escalation, and whether internal power struggles or external pressure produce additional transitions before mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$23,639,280Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader succession process, triggered by Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 strikes, installed Mojtaba Khamenei via the Assembly of Experts in early March.** Traders assign low near-term probabilities to further change, with August and September 2026 outcomes under 10% and December 2026 around 17%, reflecting the regime's rapid activation of constitutional mechanisms, including a temporary leadership council. Longer-dated options such as June 2027 lead at roughly 26-27% amid persistent uncertainty over Mojtaba's public absence, reported injuries, and questions about his effective authority. Key variables include the timing of any verified health developments, IRGC influence on clerical decisions, regional conflict escalation, and whether internal power struggles or external pressure produce additional transitions before mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$23,639,280Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's Supreme Leader succession process, triggered by Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 strikes, installed Mojtaba Khamenei via the Assembly of Experts in early March.** Traders assign low near-term probabilities to further change, with August and September 2026 outcomes under 10% and December 2026 around 17%, reflecting the regime's rapid activation of constitutional mechanisms, including a temporary leadership council. Longer-dated options such as June 2027 lead at roughly 26-27% amid persistent uncertainty over Mojtaba's public absence, reported injuries, and questions about his effective authority. Key variables include the timing of any verified health developments, IRGC influence on clerical decisions, regional conflict escalation, and whether internal power struggles or external pressure produce additional transitions before mid-2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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