**Traders assign a 97% probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate during 2026, reflecting Ossoff’s consistent polling lead in his re-election contest and the absence of any retirement or vacancy signals for either Georgia Democrat.** Ossoff, whose term ends in January 2027, faces Republican Mike Collins in the November 2026 general election. Aggregates from sources including RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ show him ahead by roughly 7–8 points in recent surveys, with forecasts such as Pollsmax assigning him a 75%+ chance of victory and rating the race Lean or Likely Democratic. No credible reports indicate an impending resignation or health-related departure. Warnock, elected to a full term ending in 2029, faces no ballot test in 2026 and has not announced any plans to depart. The narrow set of remaining paths to a “Yes” outcome includes an unforeseen late-October development that reverses Ossoff’s standing or a sudden vacancy for either senator, both viewed by traders as low-probability events given the current trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.**Traders assign a 97% probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate during 2026, reflecting Ossoff’s consistent polling lead in his re-election contest and the absence of any retirement or vacancy signals for either Georgia Democrat.**
Ossoff, whose term ends in January 2027, faces Republican Mike Collins in the November 2026 general election. Aggregates from sources including RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ show him ahead by roughly 7–8 points in recent surveys, with forecasts such as Pollsmax assigning him a 75%+ chance of victory and rating the race Lean or Likely Democratic. No credible reports indicate an impending resignation or health-related departure. Warnock, elected to a full term ending in 2029, faces no ballot test in 2026 and has not announced any plans to depart.
The narrow set of remaining paths to a “Yes” outcome includes an unforeseen late-October development that reverses Ossoff’s standing or a sudden vacancy for either senator, both viewed by traders as low-probability events given the current trajectory.
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,184Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.**Traders assign a 97% probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate during 2026, reflecting Ossoff’s consistent polling lead in his re-election contest and the absence of any retirement or vacancy signals for either Georgia Democrat.**
Ossoff, whose term ends in January 2027, faces Republican Mike Collins in the November 2026 general election. Aggregates from sources including RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ show him ahead by roughly 7–8 points in recent surveys, with forecasts such as Pollsmax assigning him a 75%+ chance of victory and rating the race Lean or Likely Democratic. No credible reports indicate an impending resignation or health-related departure. Warnock, elected to a full term ending in 2029, faces no ballot test in 2026 and has not announced any plans to depart.
The narrow set of remaining paths to a “Yes” outcome includes an unforeseen late-October development that reverses Ossoff’s standing or a sudden vacancy for either senator, both viewed by traders as low-probability events given the current trajectory.
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Wolumen
$1,184Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 97% probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate during 2026, reflecting Ossoff’s consistent polling lead in his re-election contest and the absence of any retirement or vacancy signals for either Georgia Democrat.** Ossoff, whose term ends in January 2027, faces Republican Mike Collins in the November 2026 general election. Aggregates from sources including RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ show him ahead by roughly 7–8 points in recent surveys, with forecasts such as Pollsmax assigning him a 75%+ chance of victory and rating the race Lean or Likely Democratic. No credible reports indicate an impending resignation or health-related departure. Warnock, elected to a full term ending in 2029, faces no ballot test in 2026 and has not announced any plans to depart. The narrow set of remaining paths to a “Yes” outcome includes an unforeseen late-October development that reverses Ossoff’s standing or a sudden vacancy for either senator, both viewed by traders as low-probability events given the current trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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