Recent forecast runs from Open-Meteo and other models show overnight lows in Buenos Aires stabilizing near 13°C under persistent easterly to southeasterly flow, extensive low cloud cover, and light drizzle that limits radiative cooling. This pattern follows several cooler-than-average days in early October, with prior minima around 10–11°C. Official observations through early October 13 align with these guidance values rather than deeper cold-air advection. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of localized pockets or measurement variability that could push the daily minimum a degree or two lower, producing the elevated implied probabilities for single-digit outcomes alongside the 12°C bin. Updated model cycles and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports expected later today will provide the next key data points for resolution.