Forecast models for Qingdao show the overnight minimum temperature hovering near the 15–16°C threshold due to typical late-September radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies, moderated by the Yellow Sea’s marine influence that limits sharp drops. Light winds and moderate humidity levels are expected to reduce heat loss, while any increase in cloud cover or onshore breeze could hold the low closer to 16°C. Historical September averages for the coastal city range from 14–18°C, but short-term ensemble guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicates only modest day-to-day variability this week. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing a tight distribution around these values, with resolution hinging on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the local station.