Current long-range forecast models indicate that Shanghai’s overnight low on May 24 will most likely settle near 19–21 °C, aligning with the market’s highest-implied probabilities for those exact buckets. In Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate, late-May minimum temperatures typically average around 17 °C, yet recent ensemble guidance from extended-range systems shows a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing stronger cooling and keeping readings a few degrees above the climatological baseline. Traders are therefore pricing modest warming relative to historical norms while still assigning meaningful weight to 20 °C and 22 °C outcomes, reflecting the inherent spread in model solutions this far ahead. Refined daily forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles expected in the coming 72 hours will likely narrow the range and drive further adjustments in these probabilities.