Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
22°C 38%
21°C 21%
23°C 20%
24°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 1, 2026
17°C or below
3%
18°C
3%
19°C
17%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
38%
23°C
20%
24°C
19%
25°C
17%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
3%
22°C 38%
21°C 21%
23°C 20%
24°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 1, 2026
17°C or below
$23 Wol.
3%
18°C
$13 Wol.
3%
19°C
$0 Wol.
17%
20°C
$0 Wol.
18%
21°C
$0 Wol.
21%
22°C
$0 Wol.
38%
23°C
$0 Wol.
20%
24°C
$0 Wol.
19%
25°C
$0 Wol.
17%
26°C
$11 Wol.
1%
27°C or higher
$196 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$243Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$243Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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