**Trader consensus centers on 450K–550K total votes in Montana’s open U.S. Senate race, reflecting a moderately competitive general election on November 3.** Republican Kurt Alme holds a consistent double-digit lead over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead in September polling, with the race rated solid Republican by multiple forecasters. This dynamic, combined with split opposition on the left, limits the intensity that typically boosts turnout. Montana’s registered voter base exceeds 790K, and recent primary participation reached 38 percent. Historical general-election turnout in comparable off-presidential cycles (around 61 percent in 2022) supports the market’s central range, while the absence of late-breaking developments or unusually high early-voting signals keeps probabilities clustered near historical baselines rather than pushing toward extremes.