Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days, following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, remains the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds around mid-September dates. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency, though it trades minor inference speed. xAI’s accelerated monthly cadence positions it against OpenAI’s Astra and Anthropic’s upcoming releases, yet historical timeline slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities distributed across early-to-late September windows. Traders appear to weigh the founder’s latest target against the need for verifiable rollout criteria before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
September 17 45%
September 10 44%
September 20 44%
On or prior to September 9 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
44%
September 10
44%
September 11
42%
September 12
25%
September 13
36%
September 14
39%
September 15
43%
September 16
43%
September 17
45%
September 18
28%
September 19
40%
September 20
44%
September 21
43%
September 22
39%
September 23
44%
September 24
40%
September 25
42%
September 26
38%
September 27
38%
September 28
39%
September 29
41%
September 30
41%
No release by September 30
38%
September 17 45%
September 10 44%
September 20 44%
On or prior to September 9 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$0 Wol.
44%
September 10
$0 Wol.
44%
September 11
$0 Wol.
42%
September 12
$317 Wol.
25%
September 13
$55 Wol.
36%
September 14
$0 Wol.
39%
September 15
$0 Wol.
43%
September 16
$0 Wol.
43%
September 17
$0 Wol.
45%
September 18
$0 Wol.
28%
September 19
$0 Wol.
40%
September 20
$0 Wol.
44%
September 21
$0 Wol.
43%
September 22
$0 Wol.
39%
September 23
$0 Wol.
44%
September 24
$0 Wol.
40%
September 25
$0 Wol.
42%
September 26
$0 Wol.
38%
September 27
$0 Wol.
38%
September 28
$0 Wol.
39%
September 29
$0 Wol.
41%
September 30
$0 Wol.
41%
No release by September 30
$0 Wol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days, following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, remains the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds around mid-September dates. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency, though it trades minor inference speed. xAI’s accelerated monthly cadence positions it against OpenAI’s Astra and Anthropic’s upcoming releases, yet historical timeline slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities distributed across early-to-late September windows. Traders appear to weigh the founder’s latest target against the need for verifiable rollout criteria before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Wolumen
$372Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days, following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, remains the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds around mid-September dates. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency, though it trades minor inference speed. xAI’s accelerated monthly cadence positions it against OpenAI’s Astra and Anthropic’s upcoming releases, yet historical timeline slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities distributed across early-to-late September windows. Traders appear to weigh the founder’s latest target against the need for verifiable rollout criteria before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$372Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days, following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6, remains the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds around mid-September dates. The larger 2.1-trillion-parameter model incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency, though it trades minor inference speed. xAI’s accelerated monthly cadence positions it against OpenAI’s Astra and Anthropic’s upcoming releases, yet historical timeline slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities distributed across early-to-late September windows. Traders appear to weigh the founder’s latest target against the need for verifiable rollout criteria before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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