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Polityka·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Polityka·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,928 Wol.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,555 Wol.

36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Wol.

10%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Wol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Wol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,804 Wol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Wol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Wol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,047 Wol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Wol.

1%

Macron - France President

$12,124 Wol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Wol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Wol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Wol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Wol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Wol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Wol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Wol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Wol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Wol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Wol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Wol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,155 Wol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$358,169
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$358,169
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 24 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Starmer - UK PM" z 45%, za nim "Petro - Colombia President" z 36%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 45¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 45% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" wygenerował $358.2K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 27, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", przeglądaj 24 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" jest "Starmer - UK PM" z 45%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 45% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Petro - Colombia President" z 36%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.