Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a lead of roughly 13 points over Republican Jeanine Driscoll in New York’s 4th congressional district, with more than 99% of votes counted as of November 4, 2026. This places the margin squarely in the 10-15% range that commands the highest trader consensus. The outcome reflects the district’s modest Democratic lean, Gillen’s incumbency advantage after flipping the seat in 2024, and stronger Democratic performance in suburban Nassau County precincts. Pre-election ratings from multiple forecasters classified the race as Likely Democratic, consistent with registration edges and the absence of major late-cycle shifts. Remaining uncounted ballots are unlikely to alter the margin category, though final certification will confirm the precise spread.