Pierre Poilievre’s decisive victory in the Conservative Party’s January 2026 leadership review, where he secured roughly 87-90 percent backing from members, has anchored trader expectations that he will remain leader through the end of 2026. Despite the party’s 2025 federal election loss and Poilievre’s own defeat in Carleton, followed by a successful byelection return, caucus members have continued to publicly endorse his role as opposition leader. Recent polling shows some erosion in favorability among past Conservative voters, with a growing minority favoring replacement, yet a clear majority still support his continued leadership. With no active caucus challenge or Reform Act trigger advancing and the next scheduled convention well after December 2026, the current 88 percent implied probability reflects broad party stability and the absence of any immediate catalyst for removal.