Recent caucus unity efforts in Penticton, B.C., and Poilievre’s January 2026 leadership review victory with 87% support underpin the 82.5% “No” odds on an exit by year-end. MPs emphasized national interest over internal divisions amid the U.S. trade conflict and affordability pressures, with no organized challenge or resignation signals emerging. Floor crossings and public infighting have occurred, and polls show the Conservatives trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals while Poilievre’s favorability sits at historic lows, yet the majority government timeline and absence of a clear successor reduce near-term removal pressure. Traders appear to view these factors as insufficient to force a leadership change before December 31, 2026.