Doug Ford secured a third consecutive majority government for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives in the February 2025 election and used the party’s January 2026 policy convention to publicly commit to seeking a fourth term. No leadership review, caucus revolt, or resignation signals have emerged since, and recent government announcements on manufacturing investments and internal trade continue under his direction. Polling shows softening personal approval ratings offset by sustained party support ahead of the next election, with no scheduled convention or procedural triggers before December 31, 2026. Traders interpret these factors as strong barriers to an early exit, producing the 87.5% implied probability that he remains leader.