**Recent polling consistently shows minority support for Alberta separation, with figures ranging from 18% to 28% in 2026 surveys (Ipsos, Angus Reid, Leger, and others), often declining over time.** Premier Danielle Smith has publicly stated she would vote to keep Alberta in Canada, and the October 19, 2026, referendum question asks only whether to begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote—not a direct decision on independence. Multiple polls indicate roughly two-thirds or more of Albertans oppose even advancing that step, reflecting strong attachment to Canadian federal structures, economic integration, and the absence of majority backing in any region. Legal and procedural barriers, including prior court rulings on petitions and the multi-stage requirements under the Clarity Act framework, further reduce the likelihood of meaningful progress toward secession. These factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.2% implied probability for “No.”