**Polls consistently show majority opposition to Alberta independence, with recent surveys placing support for triggering a binding separation referendum at 19-32%.** An Ipsos poll from late May/early June 2026 found 72% favoring Alberta remaining in Canada on the October 19 question, while earlier 2026 figures indicated similar minority backing that has declined from January levels. Premier Danielle Smith added the non-binding referendum item in May 2026 amid citizen petitions (over 300,000 signatures collected) and legal challenges, including First Nations court actions over treaty rights and procedural injunctions. The question asks voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or start the constitutional process for a future binding vote, but constitutional requirements, federal-provincial dynamics, and low separatist momentum make passage unlikely. Traders price the low odds of an affirmative independence outcome this year against these stable polling trends and institutional barriers.