Recent Bank of Canada communications and the October 28 hike to a 2.5% policy rate reflect elevated inflation risks from persistently high energy prices and refinery margins, which have kept CPI near 3% since April and prompted an upward revision of the 2027 inflation forecast to 3.1%. Market participants’ November survey shows a median expectation for one additional 25-basis-point increase by March 2027, with the rate then holding near 2.75% through 2028, though the bank emphasized proceeding one meeting at a time amid trade-policy uncertainty and lingering economic slack. This backdrop supports the leading “no change” outcome at 54.5% implied probability while sustaining a 34.5% chance of a further quarter-point rise, as traders weigh the balance between inflation persistence and growth headwinds ahead of the December 9 decision and January Monetary Policy Report.