Recent Starship Version 3 test flights, including Flight 13 in July 2026, delivered key milestones such as intact upper-stage reentry, heat shield performance data, Starlink V3 deployment, and in-space Raptor engine relight, yet the Super Heavy booster struggled with landing burns and full tower catch remains unproven for the ship. Elon Musk has targeted an upper-stage reflight by late 2026 or early 2027, but analysts note that achieving rapid, demonstrated reusability for both stages—encompassing tower catches, refurbishment cycles, and operational reliability—faces substantial technical and regulatory hurdles before year-end. These incremental advances explain the market’s 57.5% implied probability favoring “No,” reflecting trader caution on aggressive timelines amid ongoing development risks.