Polymarket traders price a tight contest for the S&P 500's December 31, 2026 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin leading at 26.5% implied probability amid the index's recent hover near 7,450 following robust Q1 2026 earnings—one of the strongest seasons in 20 years, driven by 13% profit growth and high beat rates fueled by AI adoption. Upside to $7,500-$8,000 (23%) or higher (23.5%) reflects resilient labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%) and brokerage targets around 7,600-7,700, while downside risks to $6,500-$7,000 (22.5%) stem from April CPI's 17.9% energy surge and the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75% amid policy dissent. Key swing factors include June 10 CPI data and summer FOMC meetings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Wol.
$25,377 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
14%
$6,000-$6,500
13%
$6,500-$7,000
20%
$7,000-$7,500
25%
$7,500-$8,000
23%
>$8,000
23%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Wol.
$25,377 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$15,544 Wol.
14%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,479 Wol.
13%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,389 Wol.
20%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Wol.
25%
$7,500-$8,000
$2,554 Wol.
23%
>$8,000
$2,298 Wol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a tight contest for the S&P 500's December 31, 2026 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin leading at 26.5% implied probability amid the index's recent hover near 7,450 following robust Q1 2026 earnings—one of the strongest seasons in 20 years, driven by 13% profit growth and high beat rates fueled by AI adoption. Upside to $7,500-$8,000 (23%) or higher (23.5%) reflects resilient labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%) and brokerage targets around 7,600-7,700, while downside risks to $6,500-$7,000 (22.5%) stem from April CPI's 17.9% energy surge and the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75% amid policy dissent. Key swing factors include June 10 CPI data and summer FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,377Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a tight contest for the S&P 500's December 31, 2026 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin leading at 26.5% implied probability amid the index's recent hover near 7,450 following robust Q1 2026 earnings—one of the strongest seasons in 20 years, driven by 13% profit growth and high beat rates fueled by AI adoption. Upside to $7,500-$8,000 (23%) or higher (23.5%) reflects resilient labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%) and brokerage targets around 7,600-7,700, while downside risks to $6,500-$7,000 (22.5%) stem from April CPI's 17.9% energy surge and the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75% amid policy dissent. Key swing factors include June 10 CPI data and summer FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Wolumen
$25,377Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight contest for the S&P 500's December 31, 2026 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin leading at 26.5% implied probability amid the index's recent hover near 7,450 following robust Q1 2026 earnings—one of the strongest seasons in 20 years, driven by 13% profit growth and high beat rates fueled by AI adoption. Upside to $7,500-$8,000 (23%) or higher (23.5%) reflects resilient labor markets (unemployment at 4.3%) and brokerage targets around 7,600-7,700, while downside risks to $6,500-$7,000 (22.5%) stem from April CPI's 17.9% energy surge and the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75% amid policy dissent. Key swing factors include June 10 CPI data and summer FOMC meetings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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