**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, with traders assigning the outcome a 76.5% probability.** The two oldest justices, Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76), have given no public signals of retirement despite earlier 2026 speculation tied to the Republican Senate majority and the approach of midterms. Alito recently confirmed in an August interview that he is hiring clerks and intends to serve at least through the October 2026 term, directly addressing and rejecting retirement rumors. No other justices face reported health issues or eligibility concerns that would prompt an exit this calendar year. With the court’s composition stable and no scheduled events or procedural triggers pointing to an opening, the market reflects the absence of confirmed developments that would alter the nine-justice roster before year-end.