**Zohran Mamdani leads trader consensus on prediction markets with roughly 23–26% implied probability, ahead of James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed, following strong Democratic showings in the 2026 midterms that elevated his national profile beyond New York City.** Mark Carney sits in the next tier amid his role as Canadian prime minister navigating trade tensions, while Pope Leo XIV and a diminished Donald Trump trail further back. TIME editors select the honoree for greatest influence “for better or worse,” often favoring groups, concepts like AI (last year’s winner), or unexpected figures; the announcement typically arrives in early-to-mid December. Recent momentum shifts tied to election results and international positioning continue to shape the field, with late developments still able to reorder the shortlist before the cover reveal.