Avengers: Doomsday’s market-leading 78.5% implied probability stems from record-shattering presales exceeding $65 million domestically and $100 million worldwide, months ahead of its December 18 release, with trackers projecting a potential $300 million-plus domestic opening that could eclipse Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s $360 million benchmark. The Russo brothers’ return, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and strong early buzz have fueled trader consensus around this MCU event film. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds 21.5% after its July record haul, but lacks further momentum as a past release. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah each sit at 0.1%, limited by November timing and direct December competition, respectively. The December 18 “Dunesday” clash remains the key near-term catalyst.