Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026, the year’s strongest at the time and well ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s earlier $132 million debut, anchors trader consensus at 95% implied probability for third place. Subsequent releases have locked in the top two spots, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Odyssey’s strong summer start creating a clear hierarchy. Strong audience retention, A CinemaScore, and positive word-of-mouth reinforced its standing against later competition. An upset would require an unheralded late-2026 tentpole to post an opening between roughly $160 million and the leaders, a low-probability outcome given current tracking and historical patterns for similar releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.9%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.7%
$30,494 Wol.
$30,494 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.9%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.7%
$30,494 Wol.
$30,494 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$19,223 Wol.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$2,118 Wol.
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,698 Wol.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,645 Wol.
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,900 Wol.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,276 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026, the year’s strongest at the time and well ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s earlier $132 million debut, anchors trader consensus at 95% implied probability for third place. Subsequent releases have locked in the top two spots, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Odyssey’s strong summer start creating a clear hierarchy. Strong audience retention, A CinemaScore, and positive word-of-mouth reinforced its standing against later competition. An upset would require an unheralded late-2026 tentpole to post an opening between roughly $160 million and the leaders, a low-probability outcome given current tracking and historical patterns for similar releases.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Wolumen
$30,494Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026, the year’s strongest at the time and well ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s earlier $132 million debut, anchors trader consensus at 95% implied probability for third place. Subsequent releases have locked in the top two spots, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Odyssey’s strong summer start creating a clear hierarchy. Strong audience retention, A CinemaScore, and positive word-of-mouth reinforced its standing against later competition. An upset would require an unheralded late-2026 tentpole to post an opening between roughly $160 million and the leaders, a low-probability outcome given current tracking and historical patterns for similar releases.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$30,494Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026, the year’s strongest at the time and well ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s earlier $132 million debut, anchors trader consensus at 95% implied probability for third place. Subsequent releases have locked in the top two spots, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Odyssey’s strong summer start creating a clear hierarchy. Strong audience retention, A CinemaScore, and positive word-of-mouth reinforced its standing against later competition. An upset would require an unheralded late-2026 tentpole to post an opening between roughly $160 million and the leaders, a low-probability outcome given current tracking and historical patterns for similar releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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