The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Amul Thapar 22%
James Ho 17%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Aileen Cannon 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 19, 2029
Amul Thapar
22%
James Ho
17%
Andrew Oldham
13%
Aileen Cannon
16%
Steven Menashi
12%
Patrick Bumatay
11%
Neomi Rao
9%
Gregory Katsas
17%
Mike Lee
6%
John Sauer
5%
Ted Cruz
27%
Amul Thapar 22%
James Ho 17%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Aileen Cannon 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 19, 2029
Amul Thapar
$155 Wol.
22%
James Ho
$457 Wol.
17%
Andrew Oldham
$637 Wol.
13%
Aileen Cannon
$243 Wol.
16%
Steven Menashi
$103 Wol.
12%
Patrick Bumatay
$881 Wol.
11%
Neomi Rao
$108 Wol.
9%
Gregory Katsas
$127 Wol.
17%
Mike Lee
$125 Wol.
6%
John Sauer
$121 Wol.
5%
Ted Cruz
$160 Wol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,118Data zakończenia
Jan 19, 2029Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,118Data zakończenia
Jan 19, 2029Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania