Banksy’s established pattern of multiple authenticated public interventions per year, including the April 2026 Waterloo Place statue and prior 2025 murals at the Royal Courts of Justice and in Bayswater, underpins the 75% market-implied odds for at least one new outdoor mural or street piece by year-end. With more than three months remaining, traders weigh his history of surprise drops tied to political moments, holidays, or London landmarks against the requirement for official Instagram confirmation. While no new work has surfaced since spring, the artist’s anonymous, event-responsive approach and consistent output over two decades make additional activity the consensus baseline, though the inherent unpredictability of timing leaves room for a quiet finish.