Avengers: Doomsday commands near-certain trader consensus at 97.8% implied probability thanks to record presales exceeding $100 million globally and $50 million domestically months ahead of its December 18 release, far outpacing prior MCU benchmarks like Deadpool & Wolverine. The Russo brothers’ return, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and recent Spider-Man: Brand New Day momentum signal broad mainstream appeal and premium-format demand that typically translate into $300 million-plus domestic openings. Dune: Part Three benefits from exclusive U.S. IMAX screens and solid franchise presales tracking toward a $100–130 million debut, yet its more niche audience and historical ceiling around $82 million for Part Two limit upside against the MCU’s scale. Realistic upset paths remain narrow and would require exceptional early reviews or word-of-mouth for Dune combined with unexpected Marvel fatigue, though current tracking shows little evidence of such a shift before the holiday frame.