Trader consensus around a 95.7% implied probability on “No” for a goalkeeper scoring in the 2026 World Cup stems from the complete absence of such goals across modern senior men’s tournaments, where keepers prioritize distribution and shot-stopping over forward involvement. Tactical setups in high-stakes matches further discourage GK advances, with teams rarely risking exposure on set pieces or clearances that could result in an own-goal or counter. Recent qualifier form and roster announcements show no shift toward attacking-oriented goalkeepers, reinforcing the baseline. Scenarios that could still produce an outcome include a keeper converting a penalty in extra time, scoring from a long clearance, or capitalizing on a late corner, though these remain outliers given established patterns and the tournament’s defensive emphasis.