The Bank of Israel’s established easing bias, supported by inflation forecasts of 1.7–2.2 percent for 2026 that remain well inside the lower half of the 1–3 percent target range, drives the 73 percent market-implied probability of a rate cut at the May 25 decision. After two 25-basis-point reductions brought the benchmark to 4.00 percent earlier this year, the March hold reflected a temporary pause amid energy-price pressures and renewed geopolitical tensions with Iran; subsequent stabilization and recent ceasefire developments have allowed one-year inflation expectations to settle near 1.5–2.0 percent. With April CPI data now in focus and the Monetary Committee’s updated growth outlook pointing toward gradual easing, traders assign only a 28 percent chance to no change and less than 1 percent to a hike, reflecting a clear consensus for resumption of the rate path.