Recent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5,00-5,49% 36.9%
4,50-4,99% 30.4%
5,50-5,99% 18.4%
6,00-6,49% 5.5%
$67,740 Vol.
$67,740 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
1%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
1%
4,00-4,49%
4%
4,50-4,99%
30%
5,00-5,49%
37%
5,50-5,99%
18%
6,00-6,49%
5%
6,50-6,99%
3%
7,00%+
2%
5,00-5,49% 36.9%
4,50-4,99% 30.4%
5,50-5,99% 18.4%
6,00-6,49% 5.5%
$67,740 Vol.
$67,740 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
$4,677 Vol.
1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,444 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$11,894 Vol.
1%
4,00-4,49%
$8,873 Vol.
4%
4,50-4,99%
$8,957 Vol.
30%
5,00-5,49%
$7,458 Vol.
37%
5,50-5,99%
$6,210 Vol.
18%
6,00-6,49%
$5,481 Vol.
5%
6,50-6,99%
$5,871 Vol.
3%
7,00%+
$3,873 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$67,740Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$67,740Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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