Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have shifted higher amid persistent upward pressure from elevated oil prices following the Middle East conflict, which has lifted longer-term forecasts in the Central Bank's weekly Focus survey to around 4.9%. Recent monthly readings, including April's 4.39% year-over-year increase, reflect food and fuel pass-through that has pushed the median analyst outlook into the upper half of the 1.5–4.5% target band. With the Selic rate held near 14.75% to anchor expectations and the Copom maintaining a cautious easing path, traders see the 5.00–5.99% range as the most probable outcome. Key swing factors include further commodity volatility and upcoming IPCA releases that could widen or narrow the gap between current 4.5% and 6.0% buckets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5,00-5,49% 27.3%
4,50-4,99% 23.9%
5,50-5,99% 19.1%
7,00%+ 8.1%
$58,044 Vol.
$58,044 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
6%
3,50-3,99%
17%
4,00-4,49%
8%
4,50-4,99%
18%
5,00-5,49%
28%
5,50-5,99%
19%
6,00-6,49%
5%
6,50-6,99%
5%
7,00%+
11%
5,00-5,49% 27.3%
4,50-4,99% 23.9%
5,50-5,99% 19.1%
7,00%+ 8.1%
$58,044 Vol.
$58,044 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
$4,315 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,375 Vol.
6%
3,50-3,99%
$9,689 Vol.
17%
4,00-4,49%
$7,727 Vol.
8%
4,50-4,99%
$7,027 Vol.
18%
5,00-5,49%
$6,110 Vol.
28%
5,50-5,99%
$5,700 Vol.
19%
6,00-6,49%
$4,675 Vol.
5%
6,50-6,99%
$4,863 Vol.
5%
7,00%+
$3,561 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have shifted higher amid persistent upward pressure from elevated oil prices following the Middle East conflict, which has lifted longer-term forecasts in the Central Bank's weekly Focus survey to around 4.9%. Recent monthly readings, including April's 4.39% year-over-year increase, reflect food and fuel pass-through that has pushed the median analyst outlook into the upper half of the 1.5–4.5% target band. With the Selic rate held near 14.75% to anchor expectations and the Copom maintaining a cautious easing path, traders see the 5.00–5.99% range as the most probable outcome. Key swing factors include further commodity volatility and upcoming IPCA releases that could widen or narrow the gap between current 4.5% and 6.0% buckets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$58,044Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have shifted higher amid persistent upward pressure from elevated oil prices following the Middle East conflict, which has lifted longer-term forecasts in the Central Bank's weekly Focus survey to around 4.9%. Recent monthly readings, including April's 4.39% year-over-year increase, reflect food and fuel pass-through that has pushed the median analyst outlook into the upper half of the 1.5–4.5% target band. With the Selic rate held near 14.75% to anchor expectations and the Copom maintaining a cautious easing path, traders see the 5.00–5.99% range as the most probable outcome. Key swing factors include further commodity volatility and upcoming IPCA releases that could widen or narrow the gap between current 4.5% and 6.0% buckets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$58,044Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have shifted higher amid persistent upward pressure from elevated oil prices following the Middle East conflict, which has lifted longer-term forecasts in the Central Bank's weekly Focus survey to around 4.9%. Recent monthly readings, including April's 4.39% year-over-year increase, reflect food and fuel pass-through that has pushed the median analyst outlook into the upper half of the 1.5–4.5% target band. With the Selic rate held near 14.75% to anchor expectations and the Copom maintaining a cautious easing path, traders see the 5.00–5.99% range as the most probable outcome. Key swing factors include further commodity volatility and upcoming IPCA releases that could widen or narrow the gap between current 4.5% and 6.0% buckets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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