Christine Lagarde’s public statements anchoring her tenure through October 2027 remain the dominant factor behind the 81% implied probability that she will not depart in 2026. In February she described completing her full eight-year term as her baseline, a position unchanged by subsequent speculation about a possible earlier exit tied to French political timing. No official announcement or confirmation of a 2026 departure has emerged, and Lagarde continues to lead ECB monetary policy decisions and public engagements into May 2026. European Council appointment procedures for a successor would require coordinated eurozone consensus that has yet to form, further supporting trader expectations that any transition will occur after the end of 2026.