Christine Lagarde’s term as ECB president runs through October 2027, and her July 2026 statements committing to stay at least until year-end—explicitly covering multiple remaining interest-rate decisions—have anchored trader expectations against an exit during 2026. While earlier reports and her own comments left open the possibility of an earlier departure linked to French political developments ahead of the 2027 presidential election, she has consistently described completing her mandate as the baseline and declined to signal any imminent move. This combination of reaffirmed tenure through December 2026 and the absence of fresh triggers for resignation supports the current 69.5% implied probability on “No.”