Merz leads a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government formed after the 2025 federal election, with the next scheduled Bundestag vote in 2029. Despite record-low approval ratings near 15 percent and dissatisfaction above 80 percent amid economic stagnation, traders see limited near-term removal risk through 2026. Institutional hurdles remain high: any ouster would require either a successful no-confidence vote, coalition collapse, or internal CDU leadership revolt capable of installing a replacement such as Hendrik Wüst. Recent legislative steps on health and labor reforms have allowed Merz to claim the government has “found its footing,” while no formal party challenge has materialized. Upcoming September 2026 state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern could intensify AfD pressure and internal criticism, yet analysts view these as unlikely to force an immediate exit absent a sharper deterioration in parliamentary arithmetic.