US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a 2027 Taiwan invasion, viewing amphibious assault costs as prohibitively high amid economic headwinds and preference for non-military coercion, shaping trader consensus at 82.5% against invasion by December 31. Routine PLA Navy patrols near Penghu islands on April 27 and Coast Guard intrusions into restricted waters persist as gray-zone pressure, offset by US-led Balikatan exercises deploying anti-ship missiles near Taiwan through early May. Taiwan's May 15 unveiling of missile-capable coast guard vessels enhances deterrence, while allied military posturing and Beijing's internal challenges sustain low escalation signals through 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$574,226 Vol.
$574,226 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Ganhe 4%
Sim
$574,226 Vol.
$574,226 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Ganhe 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a 2027 Taiwan invasion, viewing amphibious assault costs as prohibitively high amid economic headwinds and preference for non-military coercion, shaping trader consensus at 82.5% against invasion by December 31. Routine PLA Navy patrols near Penghu islands on April 27 and Coast Guard intrusions into restricted waters persist as gray-zone pressure, offset by US-led Balikatan exercises deploying anti-ship missiles near Taiwan through early May. Taiwan's May 15 unveiling of missile-capable coast guard vessels enhances deterrence, while allied military posturing and Beijing's internal challenges sustain low escalation signals through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$574,226Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a 2027 Taiwan invasion, viewing amphibious assault costs as prohibitively high amid economic headwinds and preference for non-military coercion, shaping trader consensus at 82.5% against invasion by December 31. Routine PLA Navy patrols near Penghu islands on April 27 and Coast Guard intrusions into restricted waters persist as gray-zone pressure, offset by US-led Balikatan exercises deploying anti-ship missiles near Taiwan through early May. Taiwan's May 15 unveiling of missile-capable coast guard vessels enhances deterrence, while allied military posturing and Beijing's internal challenges sustain low escalation signals through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$574,226Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a 2027 Taiwan invasion, viewing amphibious assault costs as prohibitively high amid economic headwinds and preference for non-military coercion, shaping trader consensus at 82.5% against invasion by December 31. Routine PLA Navy patrols near Penghu islands on April 27 and Coast Guard intrusions into restricted waters persist as gray-zone pressure, offset by US-led Balikatan exercises deploying anti-ship missiles near Taiwan through early May. Taiwan's May 15 unveiling of missile-capable coast guard vessels enhances deterrence, while allied military posturing and Beijing's internal challenges sustain low escalation signals through 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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