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icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
Política·China

A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?

icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
Política·China

A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?

set 30

dez 31

jun 30, 2027

dez 31, 2027

set 30

dez 31

jun 30, 2027

dez 31, 2027

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$2,701,436 Vol.

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$2,701,436 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US intelligence assessments and sustained but non-escalatory Chinese pressure explain the 87.5% trader consensus on “No.”** The March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment by the US intelligence community concluded that Chinese leaders currently have no plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, preferring non-military options while recognizing the extreme risks and difficulty of a successful amphibious campaign, particularly if US forces intervene. This assessment directly addressed earlier concerns tied to the 2027 PLA readiness target. Military activity has remained at routine levels of coercion rather than invasion preparation. PLA Air Defense Identification Zone incursions declined notably in 2026 compared with 2024–2025 peaks, with periods of zero crossings, while China conducted standard drills and expanded Coast Guard presence without major surges. Taiwan responded with its annual Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, incorporating reservist mobilization and US-inspired tactics, alongside expanded bilateral coast guard cooperation. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including 2026 summits, has correlated with temporary reductions in sorties around Taiwan. China continues capability development, such as carrier and replenishment ship programs, but these support broader power projection and deterrence rather than an imminent cross-strait campaign. Traders price the low probability of full-scale invasion by the 2027 deadline in line with these verified developments and the absence of fixed timelines or triggering escalations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,701,436
Data de Término
31 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US intelligence assessments and sustained but non-escalatory Chinese pressure explain the 87.5% trader consensus on “No.”** The March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment by the US intelligence community concluded that Chinese leaders currently have no plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, preferring non-military options while recognizing the extreme risks and difficulty of a successful amphibious campaign, particularly if US forces intervene. This assessment directly addressed earlier concerns tied to the 2027 PLA readiness target. Military activity has remained at routine levels of coercion rather than invasion preparation. PLA Air Defense Identification Zone incursions declined notably in 2026 compared with 2024–2025 peaks, with periods of zero crossings, while China conducted standard drills and expanded Coast Guard presence without major surges. Taiwan responded with its annual Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, incorporating reservist mobilization and US-inspired tactics, alongside expanded bilateral coast guard cooperation. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including 2026 summits, has correlated with temporary reductions in sorties around Taiwan. China continues capability development, such as carrier and replenishment ship programs, but these support broader power projection and deterrence rather than an imminent cross-strait campaign. Traders price the low probability of full-scale invasion by the 2027 deadline in line with these verified developments and the absence of fixed timelines or triggering escalations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,701,436
Data de Término
31 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A China irá invadir Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" is "A China irá invadir Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.