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icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
Política·China

A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?

icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
Política·China

A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?

set 30

dez 31

jun 30, 2027

dez 31, 2027

set 30

dez 31

jun 30, 2027

dez 31, 2027

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$2,703,368 Vol.

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$2,703,368 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s ongoing emphasis on realistic defense preparations, including its recently concluded Han Kuang exercises with expanded reservist mobilization, supply-chain resilience testing, and civil-defense measures, has reinforced deterrence without provoking immediate escalation. China continues routine maritime patrols, live-fire drills, and traffic controls around the island, patterns consistent with sustained gray-zone pressure rather than the visible amphibious buildup, troop mobilization, or official rhetoric that would signal an invasion attempt by late 2027. These dynamics, alongside persistent high economic and military risks for Beijing, underpin traders’ 87.5% probability on “No,” reflecting the absence of near-term triggers capable of shifting the balance within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,703,368
Data de Término
31 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s ongoing emphasis on realistic defense preparations, including its recently concluded Han Kuang exercises with expanded reservist mobilization, supply-chain resilience testing, and civil-defense measures, has reinforced deterrence without provoking immediate escalation. China continues routine maritime patrols, live-fire drills, and traffic controls around the island, patterns consistent with sustained gray-zone pressure rather than the visible amphibious buildup, troop mobilization, or official rhetoric that would signal an invasion attempt by late 2027. These dynamics, alongside persistent high economic and military risks for Beijing, underpin traders’ 87.5% probability on “No,” reflecting the absence of near-term triggers capable of shifting the balance within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,703,368
Data de Término
31 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A China irá invadir Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" is "A China irá invadir Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 31 de dezembro de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.