Recent Q3 2026 activity data showing persistent weakness in domestic consumption, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment—offset only partially by resilient exports—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0-4.6% range for China’s year-over-year GDP growth. Q2’s 4.3% print, the slowest since late 2022, and September analyst revisions lowering full-year forecasts to 4.5% or below reflect soft demand and property-sector drag amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds remain closely split because incremental fiscal and monetary support is expected yet its timing and scale remain uncertain, with consensus forecasts clustering near 4.3-4.4% and risks balanced around the official 4.5-5% annual target.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4.0-4.3% 36.1%
4.3-4.6% 35%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 9.8%
$44,871 Vol.
$44,871 Vol.
19 out 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
1%
3.7-4.0%
10%
4.0-4.3%
36%
4.3-4.6%
35%
4.6-4.9%
20%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.0-4.3% 36.1%
4.3-4.6% 35%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 9.8%
$44,871 Vol.
$44,871 Vol.
19 out 2026
<3.4%
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$850 Vol.
1%
3.7-4.0%
$2,233 Vol.
10%
4.0-4.3%
$4,845 Vol.
36%
4.3-4.6%
$16,754 Vol.
35%
4.6-4.9%
$11,008 Vol.
20%
4.9-5.2%
$4,205 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,831 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q3 2026 activity data showing persistent weakness in domestic consumption, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment—offset only partially by resilient exports—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0-4.6% range for China’s year-over-year GDP growth. Q2’s 4.3% print, the slowest since late 2022, and September analyst revisions lowering full-year forecasts to 4.5% or below reflect soft demand and property-sector drag amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds remain closely split because incremental fiscal and monetary support is expected yet its timing and scale remain uncertain, with consensus forecasts clustering near 4.3-4.4% and risks balanced around the official 4.5-5% annual target.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado Aberto: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$44,871Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q3 2026 activity data showing persistent weakness in domestic consumption, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment—offset only partially by resilient exports—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0-4.6% range for China’s year-over-year GDP growth. Q2’s 4.3% print, the slowest since late 2022, and September analyst revisions lowering full-year forecasts to 4.5% or below reflect soft demand and property-sector drag amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds remain closely split because incremental fiscal and monetary support is expected yet its timing and scale remain uncertain, with consensus forecasts clustering near 4.3-4.4% and risks balanced around the official 4.5-5% annual target.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$44,871Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q3 2026 activity data showing persistent weakness in domestic consumption, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment—offset only partially by resilient exports—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0-4.6% range for China’s year-over-year GDP growth. Q2’s 4.3% print, the slowest since late 2022, and September analyst revisions lowering full-year forecasts to 4.5% or below reflect soft demand and property-sector drag amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds remain closely split because incremental fiscal and monetary support is expected yet its timing and scale remain uncertain, with consensus forecasts clustering near 4.3-4.4% and risks balanced around the official 4.5-5% annual target.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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