Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates near 5.1% annualized for Q3 2026, alongside St. Louis Fed nowcasts above 3%, have anchored trader consensus on the ≥3.0% outcome at 59% implied probability. Recent data show resilient consumer spending tracking near 3% and business investment propelled by AI-related capital expenditures, offsetting softer Q2 GDP of 1.5% and net export drags. The September FOMC rate hike amid sticky core PCE near 3% signals policymakers view underlying demand as firm, while labor market balance supports sustained expansion. Official BEA advance figures due later this quarter remain the key resolution catalyst, with momentum from September retail sales and investment readings likely to sustain elevated odds absent sharp downside surprises in final monthly inputs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado≥3.0% 58%
2.5–3.0% 14%
2.0–2.5% 10%
1.0–1.5% 3.4%
$32,706 Vol.
$32,706 Vol.
29 out 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
1%
2.0–2.5%
10%
2.5–3.0%
14%
≥3.0%
58%
≥3.0% 58%
2.5–3.0% 14%
2.0–2.5% 10%
1.0–1.5% 3.4%
$32,706 Vol.
$32,706 Vol.
29 out 2026
<0.5%
$1,204 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$736 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$837 Vol.
3%
1.5–2.0%
$1,010 Vol.
1%
2.0–2.5%
$2,333 Vol.
10%
2.5–3.0%
$3,885 Vol.
14%
≥3.0%
$22,701 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates near 5.1% annualized for Q3 2026, alongside St. Louis Fed nowcasts above 3%, have anchored trader consensus on the ≥3.0% outcome at 59% implied probability. Recent data show resilient consumer spending tracking near 3% and business investment propelled by AI-related capital expenditures, offsetting softer Q2 GDP of 1.5% and net export drags. The September FOMC rate hike amid sticky core PCE near 3% signals policymakers view underlying demand as firm, while labor market balance supports sustained expansion. Official BEA advance figures due later this quarter remain the key resolution catalyst, with momentum from September retail sales and investment readings likely to sustain elevated odds absent sharp downside surprises in final monthly inputs.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$32,706Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates near 5.1% annualized for Q3 2026, alongside St. Louis Fed nowcasts above 3%, have anchored trader consensus on the ≥3.0% outcome at 59% implied probability. Recent data show resilient consumer spending tracking near 3% and business investment propelled by AI-related capital expenditures, offsetting softer Q2 GDP of 1.5% and net export drags. The September FOMC rate hike amid sticky core PCE near 3% signals policymakers view underlying demand as firm, while labor market balance supports sustained expansion. Official BEA advance figures due later this quarter remain the key resolution catalyst, with momentum from September retail sales and investment readings likely to sustain elevated odds absent sharp downside surprises in final monthly inputs.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$32,706Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates near 5.1% annualized for Q3 2026, alongside St. Louis Fed nowcasts above 3%, have anchored trader consensus on the ≥3.0% outcome at 59% implied probability. Recent data show resilient consumer spending tracking near 3% and business investment propelled by AI-related capital expenditures, offsetting softer Q2 GDP of 1.5% and net export drags. The September FOMC rate hike amid sticky core PCE near 3% signals policymakers view underlying demand as firm, while labor market balance supports sustained expansion. Official BEA advance figures due later this quarter remain the key resolution catalyst, with momentum from September retail sales and investment readings likely to sustain elevated odds absent sharp downside surprises in final monthly inputs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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