Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates have climbed to 5.1% for Q3 2026, driven by robust personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment, particularly AI-related capex. This momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and solid wage growth, underpins the 50.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%. Broader forecasts from TD Economics and others track Q3 near 2.8%, while the FOMC’s September projections place full-year 2026 growth at a 2.3% median. Persistent inflation prompted the Fed’s September 16 rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, yet domestic demand resilience continues to support elevated growth odds ahead of the advance GDP release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado≥3.0% 51%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$28,112 Vol.
$28,112 Vol.
29 out 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
20%
2.5–3.0%
16%
≥3.0%
51%
≥3.0% 51%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$28,112 Vol.
$28,112 Vol.
29 out 2026
<0.5%
$911 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,950 Vol.
20%
2.5–3.0%
$3,461 Vol.
16%
≥3.0%
$19,852 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates have climbed to 5.1% for Q3 2026, driven by robust personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment, particularly AI-related capex. This momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and solid wage growth, underpins the 50.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%. Broader forecasts from TD Economics and others track Q3 near 2.8%, while the FOMC’s September projections place full-year 2026 growth at a 2.3% median. Persistent inflation prompted the Fed’s September 16 rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, yet domestic demand resilience continues to support elevated growth odds ahead of the advance GDP release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$28,112Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates have climbed to 5.1% for Q3 2026, driven by robust personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment, particularly AI-related capex. This momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and solid wage growth, underpins the 50.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%. Broader forecasts from TD Economics and others track Q3 near 2.8%, while the FOMC’s September projections place full-year 2026 growth at a 2.3% median. Persistent inflation prompted the Fed’s September 16 rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, yet domestic demand resilience continues to support elevated growth odds ahead of the advance GDP release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$28,112Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates have climbed to 5.1% for Q3 2026, driven by robust personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment, particularly AI-related capex. This momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and solid wage growth, underpins the 50.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%. Broader forecasts from TD Economics and others track Q3 near 2.8%, while the FOMC’s September projections place full-year 2026 growth at a 2.3% median. Persistent inflation prompted the Fed’s September 16 rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, yet domestic demand resilience continues to support elevated growth odds ahead of the advance GDP release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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