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icon for Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?
Economia·Reino Unido

Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?

icon for Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?
Economia·Reino Unido

Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?

nov 12

nov 12

0,4–0,5% 26%

0,2–0,3% 23%

Negativo 19%

0,0–0,1% 18%

Polymarket
NOVO

0,4–0,5% 26%

0,2–0,3% 23%

Negativo 19%

0,0–0,1% 18%

Polymarket
NOVO

Negativo

$1,945 Vol.

19%

0,0–0,1%

$3,679 Vol.

18%

0,2–0,3%

$2,044 Vol.

23%

0,4–0,5%

$705 Vol.

26%

0,6–0,7%

$203 Vol.

11%

0,8–0,9%

$190 Vol.

1%

1,0%+

$200 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and central bank projections point to moderating growth in Q3 2026 amid the lingering effects of elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East developments. Official estimates showed Q2 GDP expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter—down from 0.6% in Q1—supported by services but constrained by softer production and government spending, while monthly figures indicated a 0.3% gain in June. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report highlighted subdued household consumption and business investment due to higher energy costs eroding real incomes, with CPI inflation at 2.6% in June expected to rise later in the year and Bank Rate held at 3.75%. Independent forecasters in the latest Treasury survey project Q3 expansion around 0.1–0.2%, reflecting a closely balanced market where modest resilience from services activity contends with downside risks from fiscal uncertainty ahead of the October budget and restrictive financial conditions.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,966
Data de Término
12 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and central bank projections point to moderating growth in Q3 2026 amid the lingering effects of elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East developments. Official estimates showed Q2 GDP expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter—down from 0.6% in Q1—supported by services but constrained by softer production and government spending, while monthly figures indicated a 0.3% gain in June. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report highlighted subdued household consumption and business investment due to higher energy costs eroding real incomes, with CPI inflation at 2.6% in June expected to rise later in the year and Bank Rate held at 3.75%. Independent forecasters in the latest Treasury survey project Q3 expansion around 0.1–0.2%, reflecting a closely balanced market where modest resilience from services activity contends with downside risks from fiscal uncertainty ahead of the October budget and restrictive financial conditions.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,966
Data de Término
12 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0,4–0,5%" at 26%, followed by "0,2–0,3%" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?" is "0,4–0,5%" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0,2–0,3%" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.