Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a modest 1.1% annualized expansion, driven largely by a sharp drop in imports amid Middle East energy disruptions rather than robust domestic demand, has left traders evenly split on Q3 outcomes. Private consumption and capital expenditure weakness, combined with elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions and a still-soft yen, weigh against the 0.8–1.6% band, while wage gains, fiscal subsidies, and AI-related export demand support the narrow positive range. Bank of Japan hawkish signals and potential September rate normalization add uncertainty around financial conditions and inflation pass-through. With Q3 data due in November, markets price in a closely contested recovery where consumption resilience and external demand will prove decisive.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0.8%–1.6% 25%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.0%–0.8% 13.2%
1.6%–2.4% 11.5%
$22,944 Vol.
$22,944 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.8%
13%
0.8%–1.6%
25%
1.6%–2.4%
12%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 25%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.0%–0.8% 13.2%
1.6%–2.4% 11.5%
$22,944 Vol.
$22,944 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$255 Vol.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,056 Vol.
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$261 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,956 Vol.
22%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,495 Vol.
13%
0.8%–1.6%
$1,635 Vol.
25%
1.6%–2.4%
$609 Vol.
12%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,235 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$922 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$521 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a modest 1.1% annualized expansion, driven largely by a sharp drop in imports amid Middle East energy disruptions rather than robust domestic demand, has left traders evenly split on Q3 outcomes. Private consumption and capital expenditure weakness, combined with elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions and a still-soft yen, weigh against the 0.8–1.6% band, while wage gains, fiscal subsidies, and AI-related export demand support the narrow positive range. Bank of Japan hawkish signals and potential September rate normalization add uncertainty around financial conditions and inflation pass-through. With Q3 data due in November, markets price in a closely contested recovery where consumption resilience and external demand will prove decisive.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$22,944Data de Término
16 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a modest 1.1% annualized expansion, driven largely by a sharp drop in imports amid Middle East energy disruptions rather than robust domestic demand, has left traders evenly split on Q3 outcomes. Private consumption and capital expenditure weakness, combined with elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions and a still-soft yen, weigh against the 0.8–1.6% band, while wage gains, fiscal subsidies, and AI-related export demand support the narrow positive range. Bank of Japan hawkish signals and potential September rate normalization add uncertainty around financial conditions and inflation pass-through. With Q3 data due in November, markets price in a closely contested recovery where consumption resilience and external demand will prove decisive.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$22,944Data de Término
16 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a modest 1.1% annualized expansion, driven largely by a sharp drop in imports amid Middle East energy disruptions rather than robust domestic demand, has left traders evenly split on Q3 outcomes. Private consumption and capital expenditure weakness, combined with elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions and a still-soft yen, weigh against the 0.8–1.6% band, while wage gains, fiscal subsidies, and AI-related export demand support the narrow positive range. Bank of Japan hawkish signals and potential September rate normalization add uncertainty around financial conditions and inflation pass-through. With Q3 data due in November, markets price in a closely contested recovery where consumption resilience and external demand will prove decisive.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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