South Korea’s semiconductor-led export surge continues to anchor trader positioning in the South Korea GDP growth (YoY) Q3 2026 market, with the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% bins holding the closest implied probabilities amid uncertainty over whether momentum will hold near Q2’s 3.7% pace or moderate. Q2 real GDP expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, supported by record chip shipments tied to global AI demand and a nominal GDP surge of 26.4% that marked the fastest annual pace since 1979. The Bank of Korea’s August upgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 3.3% reflects this strength, though base effects after Q1’s 1.8% sequential gain and lingering energy-price pressures from Middle East developments could temper Q3 readings. Recent August–September export data, up sharply on semiconductor volumes, and improving domestic consumption provide counterbalancing support. The advance Q3 estimate, due late October, will resolve the market and test whether the export tailwind sustains above 3% or eases toward the lower bin favored by current sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2,5–2,9% 42%
3,0–3,4% 33%
2,0–2,4% 15%
3,5–3,9% 5.8%
$51,100 Vol.
$51,100 Vol.
26 out 2026
<2,0%
1%
2,0–2,4%
15%
2,5–2,9%
42%
3,0–3,4%
33%
3,5–3,9%
6%
4,0–4,4%
1%
4,5–4,9%
<1%
5,0%+
<1%
2,5–2,9% 42%
3,0–3,4% 33%
2,0–2,4% 15%
3,5–3,9% 5.8%
$51,100 Vol.
$51,100 Vol.
26 out 2026
<2,0%
$1,145 Vol.
1%
2,0–2,4%
$13,071 Vol.
15%
2,5–2,9%
$8,907 Vol.
42%
3,0–3,4%
$22,860 Vol.
33%
3,5–3,9%
$2,045 Vol.
6%
4,0–4,4%
$1,273 Vol.
1%
4,5–4,9%
$890 Vol.
<1%
5,0%+
$909 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01South Korea’s semiconductor-led export surge continues to anchor trader positioning in the South Korea GDP growth (YoY) Q3 2026 market, with the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% bins holding the closest implied probabilities amid uncertainty over whether momentum will hold near Q2’s 3.7% pace or moderate. Q2 real GDP expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, supported by record chip shipments tied to global AI demand and a nominal GDP surge of 26.4% that marked the fastest annual pace since 1979. The Bank of Korea’s August upgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 3.3% reflects this strength, though base effects after Q1’s 1.8% sequential gain and lingering energy-price pressures from Middle East developments could temper Q3 readings. Recent August–September export data, up sharply on semiconductor volumes, and improving domestic consumption provide counterbalancing support. The advance Q3 estimate, due late October, will resolve the market and test whether the export tailwind sustains above 3% or eases toward the lower bin favored by current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$51,100Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01South Korea’s semiconductor-led export surge continues to anchor trader positioning in the South Korea GDP growth (YoY) Q3 2026 market, with the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% bins holding the closest implied probabilities amid uncertainty over whether momentum will hold near Q2’s 3.7% pace or moderate. Q2 real GDP expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, supported by record chip shipments tied to global AI demand and a nominal GDP surge of 26.4% that marked the fastest annual pace since 1979. The Bank of Korea’s August upgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 3.3% reflects this strength, though base effects after Q1’s 1.8% sequential gain and lingering energy-price pressures from Middle East developments could temper Q3 readings. Recent August–September export data, up sharply on semiconductor volumes, and improving domestic consumption provide counterbalancing support. The advance Q3 estimate, due late October, will resolve the market and test whether the export tailwind sustains above 3% or eases toward the lower bin favored by current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$51,100Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...South Korea’s semiconductor-led export surge continues to anchor trader positioning in the South Korea GDP growth (YoY) Q3 2026 market, with the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% bins holding the closest implied probabilities amid uncertainty over whether momentum will hold near Q2’s 3.7% pace or moderate. Q2 real GDP expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, supported by record chip shipments tied to global AI demand and a nominal GDP surge of 26.4% that marked the fastest annual pace since 1979. The Bank of Korea’s August upgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to 3.3% reflects this strength, though base effects after Q1’s 1.8% sequential gain and lingering energy-price pressures from Middle East developments could temper Q3 readings. Recent August–September export data, up sharply on semiconductor volumes, and improving domestic consumption provide counterbalancing support. The advance Q3 estimate, due late October, will resolve the market and test whether the export tailwind sustains above 3% or eases toward the lower bin favored by current sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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