China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome that holds 71.5 percent probability. First-quarter results released in April showed exactly 5 percent expansion, driven by industrial output and exports that offset subdued retail sales and ongoing property-sector weakness. International forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting fiscal support measures alongside headwinds from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and softer domestic demand. The narrower 5.0–6.0 percent bracket retains 25.9 percent odds on the possibility of stronger export momentum or additional stimulus, while probabilities for outcomes above 6 percent or below 4 percent remain minimal given the established policy framework and recent data trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4,0–5,0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 25.9%
6,0-7,0% 2.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.5%
$527,837 Vol.
$527,837 Vol.
31 jan 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
2%
4,0–5,0%
72%
5,0–6,0%
26%
6,0-7,0%
3%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 25.9%
6,0-7,0% 2.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.5%
$527,837 Vol.
$527,837 Vol.
31 jan 2026
<1,0%
$41,430 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$40,608 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$21,014 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$43,445 Vol.
2%
4,0–5,0%
$135,973 Vol.
72%
5,0–6,0%
$49,129 Vol.
26%
6,0-7,0%
$48,008 Vol.
3%
7,0–8,0%
$44,478 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$20,196 Vol.
<1%
9,0%+
$83,556 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome that holds 71.5 percent probability. First-quarter results released in April showed exactly 5 percent expansion, driven by industrial output and exports that offset subdued retail sales and ongoing property-sector weakness. International forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting fiscal support measures alongside headwinds from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and softer domestic demand. The narrower 5.0–6.0 percent bracket retains 25.9 percent odds on the possibility of stronger export momentum or additional stimulus, while probabilities for outcomes above 6 percent or below 4 percent remain minimal given the established policy framework and recent data trajectory.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$527,837Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome that holds 71.5 percent probability. First-quarter results released in April showed exactly 5 percent expansion, driven by industrial output and exports that offset subdued retail sales and ongoing property-sector weakness. International forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting fiscal support measures alongside headwinds from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and softer domestic demand. The narrower 5.0–6.0 percent bracket retains 25.9 percent odds on the possibility of stronger export momentum or additional stimulus, while probabilities for outcomes above 6 percent or below 4 percent remain minimal given the established policy framework and recent data trajectory.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$527,837Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set at the March National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome that holds 71.5 percent probability. First-quarter results released in April showed exactly 5 percent expansion, driven by industrial output and exports that offset subdued retail sales and ongoing property-sector weakness. International forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting fiscal support measures alongside headwinds from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and softer domestic demand. The narrower 5.0–6.0 percent bracket retains 25.9 percent odds on the possibility of stronger export momentum or additional stimulus, while probabilities for outcomes above 6 percent or below 4 percent remain minimal given the established policy framework and recent data trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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