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icon for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Economia·Política Económica

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

icon for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Economia·Política Económica

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

jul 30

jan 29, 2027

jul 30

jan 29, 2027

1.5–2.0% 30%

2.0–2.5% 26%

2.5–3.0% 21%

3.0–3.5% 16%

Polymarket
NOVO

1.5–2.0% 30%

2.0–2.5% 26%

2.5–3.0% 21%

3.0–3.5% 16%

Polymarket
NOVO

<1.0%

$593 Vol.

8%

1.0–1.5%

$353 Vol.

9%

1.5–2.0%

$293 Vol.

21%

2.0–2.5%

$526 Vol.

26%

2.5–3.0%

$410 Vol.

21%

3.0–3.5%

$661 Vol.

16%

≥3.5%

$509 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The closely contested market-implied odds for Q2 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect mixed signals from the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized expansion, which fell short of the 2.3% consensus yet marked a rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace. Strong business investment, fueled by AI-related capital spending, provided the main lift, while softer consumer outlays, a wider trade deficit, and the April CPI jump to 3.8% year-over-year—driven by energy-price surges—have tempered expectations for rapid Federal Reserve easing. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7% underscores upside potential from fiscal support and post-shutdown normalization, yet cooling labor-market data and inflation persistence keep probabilities tightly bunched across the 1.5–3.0% range. Traders are monitoring the May 28 Q1 second estimate and upcoming retail sales and ISM readings for clearer direction.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,345
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The closely contested market-implied odds for Q2 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect mixed signals from the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized expansion, which fell short of the 2.3% consensus yet marked a rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace. Strong business investment, fueled by AI-related capital spending, provided the main lift, while softer consumer outlays, a wider trade deficit, and the April CPI jump to 3.8% year-over-year—driven by energy-price surges—have tempered expectations for rapid Federal Reserve easing. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7% underscores upside potential from fiscal support and post-shutdown normalization, yet cooling labor-market data and inflation persistence keep probabilities tightly bunched across the 1.5–3.0% range. Traders are monitoring the May 28 Q1 second estimate and upcoming retail sales and ISM readings for clearer direction.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,345
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.0–2.5%" at 26%, followed by "1.5–2.0%" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" is "2.0–2.5%" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.5–2.0%" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.