Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 2026 meeting, including a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75% and an upward revision of the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpin the 58.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July meeting. Traders appear to price in a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 16 decision, consistent with economist polls assigning roughly 65% odds to that outcome, which would then support a pause. Elevated wage growth expectations and a closed output gap reinforce the gradual normalization path, while uncertainty over global growth and yen movements sustains the 41% chance of a further quarter-point increase in July.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 59%
25 bps increase 41%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
41%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 41%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Vol.
1%
No change
$20 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$77 Vol.
41%
50+ bps increase
$61 Vol.
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 2026 meeting, including a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75% and an upward revision of the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpin the 58.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July meeting. Traders appear to price in a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 16 decision, consistent with economist polls assigning roughly 65% odds to that outcome, which would then support a pause. Elevated wage growth expectations and a closed output gap reinforce the gradual normalization path, while uncertainty over global growth and yen movements sustains the 41% chance of a further quarter-point increase in July.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$912Data de Término
31 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 2026 meeting, including a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75% and an upward revision of the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpin the 58.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July meeting. Traders appear to price in a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 16 decision, consistent with economist polls assigning roughly 65% odds to that outcome, which would then support a pause. Elevated wage growth expectations and a closed output gap reinforce the gradual normalization path, while uncertainty over global growth and yen movements sustains the 41% chance of a further quarter-point increase in July.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$912Data de Término
31 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 2026 meeting, including a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75% and an upward revision of the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpin the 58.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July meeting. Traders appear to price in a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 16 decision, consistent with economist polls assigning roughly 65% odds to that outcome, which would then support a pause. Elevated wage growth expectations and a closed output gap reinforce the gradual normalization path, while uncertainty over global growth and yen movements sustains the 41% chance of a further quarter-point increase in July.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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