Japan’s government has signaled strong reluctance to declassify its own unidentified anomalous phenomena records in 2026, citing risks to intelligence-gathering methods. Following the Pentagon’s May 2026 release of UAP files—including sightings near Japanese airspace—Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that Tokyo would review any disclosures on a narrow, case-by-case basis after weighing national-security factors. No legislation, cabinet directive, or scheduled review has been announced that would compel broader transparency by year-end. Traders therefore assign an 86.5 percent probability to “No,” viewing Japan’s cautious posture and longstanding emphasis on operational security as the dominant constraints on any near-term release.