Skip to main content
icon for Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?
Eleições·Etiópia

Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?

icon for Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?
Eleições·Etiópia

Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?

Abiy Ahmed 96.8%

Gedion Timothewos 1.5%

Berhanu Nega <1%

Adanech Abiebie <1%

Polymarket

$281,566,394 Vol.

Abiy Ahmed 96.8%

Gedion Timothewos 1.5%

Berhanu Nega <1%

Adanech Abiebie <1%

Polymarket

$281,566,394 Vol.

icon for Abiy Ahmed

Abiy Ahmed

$134,039 Vol.

97%

icon for Gedion Timothewos

Gedion Timothewos

$55,931,413 Vol.

1%

icon for Berhanu Nega

Berhanu Nega

$29,552,757 Vol.

1%

icon for Adanech Abiebie

Adanech Abiebie

$83,445,189 Vol.

1%

icon for Alesa Mengesha

Alesa Mengesha

$13,575,419 Vol.

1%

icon for Demeke Mekonnen

Demeke Mekonnen

$27,398,334 Vol.

<1%

icon for Belete Molla

Belete Molla

$30,108,483 Vol.

<1%

icon for Shimelis Abdisa

Shimelis Abdisa

$41,420,759 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party secured a commanding 438-seat majority in Ethiopia's June 2026 parliamentary elections, enabling the House of Peoples' Representatives to designate him for another term beginning in October. This outcome reflects the ruling party's entrenched parliamentary control and the limited viability of opposition figures such as Gedion Timothewos, Berhanu Nega, or regional leaders amid a fragmented political landscape. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to Ahmed's continuation, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency and majority government formation. Shifts remain possible only through exceptional developments, including health events, major internal party realignments, or unforeseen constitutional changes before the next electoral cycle.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$281,566,394
Data de Término
1 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party secured a commanding 438-seat majority in Ethiopia's June 2026 parliamentary elections, enabling the House of Peoples' Representatives to designate him for another term beginning in October. This outcome reflects the ruling party's entrenched parliamentary control and the limited viability of opposition figures such as Gedion Timothewos, Berhanu Nega, or regional leaders amid a fragmented political landscape. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to Ahmed's continuation, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency and majority government formation. Shifts remain possible only through exceptional developments, including health events, major internal party realignments, or unforeseen constitutional changes before the next electoral cycle.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$281,566,394
Data de Término
1 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Relacionado

icon for Magdalena Andersson será a próxima primeira-ministra da Suécia?

Magdalena Andersson será a próxima primeira-ministra da Suécia?

86%
Sim
icon for Gadi Eizenkot será o próximo Primeiro-Ministro de Israel?

Gadi Eizenkot será o próximo Primeiro-Ministro de Israel?

53%
Sim
icon for Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

52%

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abiy Ahmed" at 97%, followed by "Gedion Timothewos" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?" has generated $281.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?" is "Abiy Ahmed" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gedion Timothewos" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro da Etiópia?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.