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Política·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Política·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 43%

Silvia Salis 18.6%

Elly Schlein 17%

Angelo Bonelli 13.8%

Polymarket

$14,540 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni 43%

Silvia Salis 18.6%

Elly Schlein 17%

Angelo Bonelli 13.8%

Polymarket

$14,540 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni

$3,482 Vol.

43%

Elly Schlein

$712 Vol.

17%

Giuseppe Conte

$984 Vol.

9%

Antonio Tajani

$943 Vol.

3%

Matteo Salvini

$1,264 Vol.

2%

Guido Crosetto

$645 Vol.

2%

Mario Draghi

$483 Vol.

6%

Silvia Salis

$2,127 Vol.

19%

Roberto Vannacci

$2,133 Vol.

7%

Matteo Renzi

$417 Vol.

3%

Angelo Bonelli

$748 Vol.

14%

Carlo Calenda

$602 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The March 2026 defeat on judicial reforms marked the first major setback for Giorgia Meloni’s center-right coalition, exposing vulnerabilities from low turnout and opposition mobilization while fueling speculation about shifts before the next general election due by December 2027. Incumbency and the coalition’s record of delivering rare postwar stability still anchor trader consensus around Meloni as the leading outcome. On the center-left, Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein holds steady ground amid party primaries, while Genoa mayor Silvia Salis has risen sharply as a potential unifying challenger. Proportional representation and coalition math remain central factors, with energy pressures, migration policy, and foreign policy strains likely to influence positioning through the resolution window.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,540
Data de Término
31 dez 2028
Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The March 2026 defeat on judicial reforms marked the first major setback for Giorgia Meloni’s center-right coalition, exposing vulnerabilities from low turnout and opposition mobilization while fueling speculation about shifts before the next general election due by December 2027. Incumbency and the coalition’s record of delivering rare postwar stability still anchor trader consensus around Meloni as the leading outcome. On the center-left, Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein holds steady ground amid party primaries, while Genoa mayor Silvia Salis has risen sharply as a potential unifying challenger. Proportional representation and coalition math remain central factors, with energy pressures, migration policy, and foreign policy strains likely to influence positioning through the resolution window.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,540
Data de Término
31 dez 2028
Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Giorgia Meloni" at 43%, followed by "Silvia Salis" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" has generated $14.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is "Giorgia Meloni" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Silvia Salis" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.