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Política·Eleições Globais

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Política·Eleições Globais

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 50%

Elly Schlein 14%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 10.0%

Polymarket

$83,533 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni 50%

Elly Schlein 14%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 10.0%

Polymarket

$83,533 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni

$9,798 Vol.

50%

Elly Schlein

$6,104 Vol.

14%

Giuseppe Conte

$5,667 Vol.

13%

Antonio Tajani

$2,277 Vol.

<1%

Matteo Salvini

$3,400 Vol.

<1%

Guido Crosetto

$1,534 Vol.

<1%

Mario Draghi

$2,515 Vol.

1%

Silvia Salis

$8,658 Vol.

8%

Roberto Vannacci

$37,875 Vol.

10%

Matteo Renzi

$1,637 Vol.

<1%

Angelo Bonelli

$1,792 Vol.

<1%

Carlo Calenda

$2,276 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Meloni's position as the incumbent heading Italy's longest-serving postwar government underpins her leading 49.5% odds, bolstered by her Brothers of Italy party's consistent 26-27% polling lead and her September 16 statement committing to serve until the 2027 election. Coalition strains from League and Forza Italia weakness, plus the rapid rise of Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale party to around 8%, have narrowed the centre-right's edge and introduced uncertainty about alliance cohesion. Centre-left contenders Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte trail at 14% and 13% respectively amid fragmented opposition polling near 43-44%, while Silvia Salis and Vannacci draw secondary support in a fragmented field. Scheduled electoral reforms and ongoing coalition negotiations remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the vote.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,533
Data de Término
31 dez 2028
Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Meloni's position as the incumbent heading Italy's longest-serving postwar government underpins her leading 49.5% odds, bolstered by her Brothers of Italy party's consistent 26-27% polling lead and her September 16 statement committing to serve until the 2027 election. Coalition strains from League and Forza Italia weakness, plus the rapid rise of Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale party to around 8%, have narrowed the centre-right's edge and introduced uncertainty about alliance cohesion. Centre-left contenders Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte trail at 14% and 13% respectively amid fragmented opposition polling near 43-44%, while Silvia Salis and Vannacci draw secondary support in a fragmented field. Scheduled electoral reforms and ongoing coalition negotiations remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the vote.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,533
Data de Término
31 dez 2028
Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Giorgia Meloni" at 50%, followed by "Elly Schlein" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" has generated $83.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is "Giorgia Meloni" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elly Schlein" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.