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Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 95%

Petro - Colombia President 2.2%

Abbas - President of Palestine <1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1%

Polymarket

$15,776,757 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 95%

Petro - Colombia President 2.2%

Abbas - President of Palestine <1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1%

Polymarket

$15,776,757 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$970,589 Vol.

95%

Petro - Colombia President

$859,663 Vol.

2%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$183,858 Vol.

1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$238,356 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$541,428 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$879,778 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$251,360 Vol.

<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$3,239,966 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$182,990 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$1,514,882 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$127,203 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$4,499,581 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$179,336 Vol.

<1%

None before 2027

$1,183,560 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$131,285 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$97,336 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$128,393 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$81,919 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$125,979 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$72,292 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$77,894 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$63,546 Vol.

<1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$96,741 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$71,412 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,776,757
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,776,757
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Starmer - UK PM" at 95%, followed by "Petro - Colombia President" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" has generated $15.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is "Starmer - UK PM" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Petro - Colombia President" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.