Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2026, driven by a March 2026 U.S. ODNI Annual Threat Assessment stating the PRC is unlikely to attempt an invasion even by 2027 due to persistent military readiness gaps in amphibious assault capabilities and logistics. Recent PLA activities remain routine gray-zone tactics: Taiwan tracked 12 Chinese aircraft and eight naval vessels on May 8, with China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen on May 1 and ongoing South China Sea patrols, showing no escalation toward full-scale cross-strait conflict. U.S. deterrence via arms sales to Taiwan and diplomatic signaling reinforces this low-risk assessment, though sudden mobilization or geopolitical shocks could shift odds before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?
A China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?
Sim
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Sim
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2026, driven by a March 2026 U.S. ODNI Annual Threat Assessment stating the PRC is unlikely to attempt an invasion even by 2027 due to persistent military readiness gaps in amphibious assault capabilities and logistics. Recent PLA activities remain routine gray-zone tactics: Taiwan tracked 12 Chinese aircraft and eight naval vessels on May 8, with China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen on May 1 and ongoing South China Sea patrols, showing no escalation toward full-scale cross-strait conflict. U.S. deterrence via arms sales to Taiwan and diplomatic signaling reinforces this low-risk assessment, though sudden mobilization or geopolitical shocks could shift odds before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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