US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to address ally security concerns amid the February 2026 expiration of New START and regional threats from adversaries. No US ally maintains an active, advanced nuclear weapons program capable of yielding deliverable warheads before 2027, with technical timelines for enrichment, weaponization, and testing spanning years even under accelerated conditions. A July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement permits potential uranium enrichment but explicitly targets energy infrastructure under nonproliferation standards, with analysts noting any weapons pathway would require far longer than the resolution window. Discussions in South Korea, Japan, and Poland reflect hedging debates rather than concrete acquisition steps, supporting trader consensus on the low probability of a "Yes" outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
6% chance
$209,366 Vol.
$209,366 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
6% chance
$209,366 Vol.
$209,366 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to address ally security concerns amid the February 2026 expiration of New START and regional threats from adversaries. No US ally maintains an active, advanced nuclear weapons program capable of yielding deliverable warheads before 2027, with technical timelines for enrichment, weaponization, and testing spanning years even under accelerated conditions. A July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement permits potential uranium enrichment but explicitly targets energy infrastructure under nonproliferation standards, with analysts noting any weapons pathway would require far longer than the resolution window. Discussions in South Korea, Japan, and Poland reflect hedging debates rather than concrete acquisition steps, supporting trader consensus on the low probability of a "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$209,366Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to address ally security concerns amid the February 2026 expiration of New START and regional threats from adversaries. No US ally maintains an active, advanced nuclear weapons program capable of yielding deliverable warheads before 2027, with technical timelines for enrichment, weaponization, and testing spanning years even under accelerated conditions. A July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement permits potential uranium enrichment but explicitly targets energy infrastructure under nonproliferation standards, with analysts noting any weapons pathway would require far longer than the resolution window. Discussions in South Korea, Japan, and Poland reflect hedging debates rather than concrete acquisition steps, supporting trader consensus on the low probability of a "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$209,366Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to address ally security concerns amid the February 2026 expiration of New START and regional threats from adversaries. No US ally maintains an active, advanced nuclear weapons program capable of yielding deliverable warheads before 2027, with technical timelines for enrichment, weaponization, and testing spanning years even under accelerated conditions. A July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement permits potential uranium enrichment but explicitly targets energy infrastructure under nonproliferation standards, with analysts noting any weapons pathway would require far longer than the resolution window. Discussions in South Korea, Japan, and Poland reflect hedging debates rather than concrete acquisition steps, supporting trader consensus on the low probability of a "Yes" outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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