No armed attack on NATO member territory has occurred to trigger Article 5 consultations since the clause's sole historical invocation after 9/11. Ongoing conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and U.S.-Iran tensions, have produced incidents such as missile incidents and airspace violations but stopped short of direct strikes on alliance members, with NATO leaders explicitly ruling out invocation in recent cases. Speculative risks of limited Russian probes or hybrid actions in the Baltics or elsewhere remain unmaterialized, while internal alliance frictions over burden-sharing and force posture have not altered the threshold for collective defense. Traders' strong consensus on "No" reflects this absence of qualifying events through late 2026.