The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where both sides reaffirmed longstanding positions on Taiwan without triggering escalation, has reinforced trader expectations that no military clash will occur before 2027. US intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks firm plans for invasion or direct confrontation in that window, despite continued gray-zone activities such as air incursions, airspace restrictions, and espionage operations targeting Taiwanese forces. China’s internal military purges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases further signal that both sides are prioritizing stability and deterrence over immediate conflict. Diplomatic engagement and the absence of major provocations since March have kept probabilities elevated for the “no” outcome, though any sudden miscalculation or shift in cross-strait dynamics could still alter the balance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,789,004 Vol.
$1,789,004 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$1,789,004 Vol.
$1,789,004 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where both sides reaffirmed longstanding positions on Taiwan without triggering escalation, has reinforced trader expectations that no military clash will occur before 2027. US intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks firm plans for invasion or direct confrontation in that window, despite continued gray-zone activities such as air incursions, airspace restrictions, and espionage operations targeting Taiwanese forces. China’s internal military purges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases further signal that both sides are prioritizing stability and deterrence over immediate conflict. Diplomatic engagement and the absence of major provocations since March have kept probabilities elevated for the “no” outcome, though any sudden miscalculation or shift in cross-strait dynamics could still alter the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,789,004Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where both sides reaffirmed longstanding positions on Taiwan without triggering escalation, has reinforced trader expectations that no military clash will occur before 2027. US intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks firm plans for invasion or direct confrontation in that window, despite continued gray-zone activities such as air incursions, airspace restrictions, and espionage operations targeting Taiwanese forces. China’s internal military purges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases further signal that both sides are prioritizing stability and deterrence over immediate conflict. Diplomatic engagement and the absence of major provocations since March have kept probabilities elevated for the “no” outcome, though any sudden miscalculation or shift in cross-strait dynamics could still alter the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,789,004Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where both sides reaffirmed longstanding positions on Taiwan without triggering escalation, has reinforced trader expectations that no military clash will occur before 2027. US intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks firm plans for invasion or direct confrontation in that window, despite continued gray-zone activities such as air incursions, airspace restrictions, and espionage operations targeting Taiwanese forces. China’s internal military purges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases further signal that both sides are prioritizing stability and deterrence over immediate conflict. Diplomatic engagement and the absence of major provocations since March have kept probabilities elevated for the “no” outcome, though any sudden miscalculation or shift in cross-strait dynamics could still alter the balance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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